For offshore wind power, the construction process of developers should not be too fast. On November 18, 2019, Xie Changjun, former general manager of Longyuan Power, retired for the second anniversary. The leader, who once built Longyuan Power into the world's wind power pearl and promoted China's wind power to large-scale development, is still concerned about China's wind power industry after retirement.

At present, China's wind power is setting off a second round of rush to install the tide. Under the appearance of short-lived prosperity brought by the rush, a new round of shuffling undercurrents is turbulent. After the rush is over, it will enter the "14th Five-Year Plan". During this period, the wind power industry will enter the era of small profits. At that time, the pace of private enterprises with little capital will be more difficult. "When renewable energy represented by wind power has become conventional energy or mainstream energy, the state should no longer give special policy support." In the process, the profit margin will fall. At this time, state-owned enterprises and central enterprises should rush to increase investment to develop. Xie Changjun said. He believes that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's wind power industry will usher in stable development. This stability is not only reflected in the steady development of the total amount of wind power, but also in the technological maturity and manufacturing capacity improvement of the supply chain. Xie Changjun also believes that in the next five years, offshore wind power will usher in rapid development, while onshore wind power will return to the Sanbei region in two or three years. Decentralized wind power in the southern Middle East will not develop much due to factors such as land constraints. But for offshore wind power, Xie Changjun suggested that the construction process of developers should not be too fast. At present, some offshore wind turbine technologies are still in the verification stage, and the cost and difficulty of operation and maintenance are greater than those of onshore wind power. More importantly, the pressure of the parity era has quickly spread from developers to OEMs and supply chains. In order to enhance competitiveness, 13 complete machine manufacturers such as Goldwind Technology, Mingyang Intelligent and Yunda Wind Power have successively released a total of 30 affordable models, and their common characteristics are all moving towards large megawatts.

After offshore wind turbines entered the era of large megawatts, the parts of wind turbines were obviously stuck in the neck of foreign companies. Previously, Dongfang Electric's 10 MW offshore wind turbine rolled off the production line, and its generator bearings and yaw bearings came from foreign bearing companies Schaeffler and Defontaine. "At present, the localization of China's wind turbines is constrained by two major components, one of which is all kinds of bearings, especially the spindle; The second is the electronic control system. Xie Changjun said. He called on the government to actively guide enterprises to carry out technical research, and relevant enterprises should also exert subjective initiative and undertake the important task of localization. At the end of October this year, Xie Changjun visited the Luoyang Advanced Manufacturing Industry R&D Base (referred to as the "Qingluo Base") of the Tianjin High-end Equipment Research Institute of Tsinghua University, and witnessed the establishment of the "Wind Turbine Remanufacturing Research Institute" of the base. In the next step, the legendary representative of China's wind power field will also organize domestic electronic control system related enterprises to carry out technical research. He believes that the most difficult parts of the two major wind power industries to localize will be localized in the future. Here is an excerpt from the interview: JM: How many wind farms do you expect to build this year and next? Will the relevant departments have an internal plan for the grid-connected capacity of wind power every year? Xie Changjun: The current rush may bring two sequelae, one is that the quality will be affected; Second, after grabbing it, you can't generate electricity, because the power grid has its own plan, and it is impossible to connect you to the grid because you want the price of electricity. As for the scale of construction, because of the limited capacity of parts manufacturers, I estimate that the rush to install in these two years will not exceed 2015. In 2015, it probably grabbed more than 30 million kilowatts, and this year I estimate that it will not exceed 25 million kilowatts. Next year may be a little more, after all, next year is the last year, but it will not exceed 30 million kilowatts, basically such a level. JM: The 14th Five-Year Plan period is a new beginning for the wind power industry, because the era of parity has arrived. What is your forecast for the development of the wind power industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period? Xie Changjun: I personally believe that the 14th Five-Year Plan is a turning point in the country's renewable energy development, and this turning point is gradually moving from turbulence, policy change, and relatively unclear technology to rationality. There are several characteristics of rationality: first, the previous technology was immature, and since then the innovation has increased, and the ideal thing has become a reality; Second, the maturity and quality maturity of the equipment will be improved, and the quality of the equipment will gradually become better; Third, the entire industrial chain will form a relatively complete, or at least guaranteed, system. Another manifestation is that the enthusiasm for investment will decline

。 Wind power has entered the era of parity, but also entered the era of small profits, and its profit margin will decline compared with the past. There are basically two scenarios for onshore wind in the future: First, the southern part of the Middle East, I personally believe that this market will gradually shrink. Distributed can develop partially, but it will definitely not become mainstream. The situation in China is completely different from that in the West, and wind power in the central and eastern regions will gradually weaken with the strengthening of environmental protection and even the development of original stock assets. I expect that in two or three years, onshore wind power will gradually return to the north, that is, the three north region. However, the current absorption capacity of the Sanbei region has not really been implemented, in other words, there will be serious power cuts if there are too many. This year's electricity consumption of the whole society is much lower than last year, which is a signal. Based on this situation, the development of wind power will be relatively stable throughout the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. Onshore wind power is quite good at the level of 20 million kilowatts per year, reaching 100 million kilowatts in five years. Offshore wind is likely to accelerate. The main reason for the acceleration of offshore wind power is that the enthusiasm of the coastal government is relatively high, and there is also the driving role of central enterprises, and the driving role of private enterprises manufacturers also plays a great role. The industry is worried that the electricity price of offshore wind power will drop sharply in the future, I personally think it is inevitable, but offshore wind power can not achieve "parity" within five years, offshore wind power is now parity is dead price, just don't do it. I think the offshore wind power price can be considered to be lowered to about 6 Mao5 first, this electricity price level is basically profitable, but this profit margin level is similar to the land parity. You can't be lower than 6 gross 5, otherwise you will lose money. In addition, the recent dispute between thermal power and new energy is very hot. I personally believe that energy security will be put first during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. As for how the various proportions are distributed, I think that the development of renewable energy and the control of coal or the basic strategy of the country will not change much. But oil and gas will be paid more attention than the 13th Five-Year Plan, because it involves national security. 

Therefore, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, I personally believe that it is still necessary to actively and steadily develop renewable energy, including hydropower, wind power, photovoltaics, etc. JM: From a supply chain perspective, some wind turbine components and offshore equipment are still imported. How do you think the government should guide companies to conduct independent research and development? Xie Changjun: At present, the localization of wind turbines in China is also restricted by two major components: one is all kinds of bearings, especially the spindle. The second is the electronic control system, which can do part of itself, but PLC and the like mainly rely on foreign companies. In terms of software and hardware, Western countries do not disclose coding, and it is difficult to do it yourself if you want to do it yourself, and it takes a long time. Recently, I have also been organizing some companies in this area, and we are studying how to crack it, and electronic control will soon make a breakthrough. Initiative, needed at the enterprise level. For example, why can NGC solve the Chinese gearbox problem? At the beginning, there was also a lack of technology and institutional mechanisms. But then NGC seized the opportunity to partner with GE (GE of the United States), which made it the main supplier of gearboxes. By cooperating with GE, NGC has improved its quality and is now one of the best gearbox suppliers in the world, on par with several foreign gearbox companies. JM: Looking back on your more than 20 years in wind power, what are your regrets? Xie Changjun: There are three main regrets for me. The first is that I still don't do enough in terms of environmental protection. Because the early construction of wind farms still has a little impact on the ecology, especially our wind farms in Shaanxi and Yunnan, which were established when I was in the past, and are now being rectified, which is a big pity. I think it's not too late for this regret, I was three years before Guodian was about to retire, and I didn't do anything else for the remaining two and a half years, so I grabbed this as a compensation. Now it seems that the whole group attaches great importance to this aspect and invests a lot in this matter. The second regret is that overseas business development is not enough. I only worked on two projects, one in Canada and one in South Africa.

Both projects were difficult to do, but both ended up being successful. The third regret is that I take Longyuan too seriously, and some cadres could have gone outside to serve better, so I followed the people and was reluctant to let people go. Later, I said, it is not necessarily bad to let you go, but now it seems that you should still let people go. JM: What qualities do you think an entrepreneur in a state-owned enterprise needs to have? Xie Changjun: The first is that people must be sincere, people cannot do things if they are not sincere, people are not sincere and have no friends. In my life, especially in the past ten years in Longyuan, I have many friends, whether in the industry, outside the industry, local governments, central governments or within the company, all support me, and no one demolishes me. Of course, this sincerity is based on ability. Second, we must dare to make decisions and take responsibility. If there is one more point, it is that professional knowledge must be excellent. Therefore, sincere, dare to take responsibility, have a sense of responsibility, understand professionalism, the most important thing is that selfishness cannot be too much, willing to endure hardships. It is important to endure hardship, and an entrepreneur who is lazy cannot do things. ◆